At least, not all of them.
Despite the buzz around AI potentially taking over tech jobs, the reality is far less dramatic. The current lack of jobs is more about global economic challenges than any impending AI singularity.
The Real Reasons Behind the Current Job Market Slump
Global Economic Downturn
The sluggish global economy is the main culprit behind the job shortage. Companies are navigating uncertain financial landscapes, leading to more cautious hiring practices.
Overhiring During COVID-19
During the pandemic, many larger companies hired excessively, sometimes even before having the work to assign. The goal was often to prevent competitors from acquiring specific talent. This talent hoarding has led to a surplus of employees without significant work, prompting companies to reassess their staffing needs.
Changes in the US Tech Industry
Talent Hoarding and Legal Shifts
In the US, companies used to prevent employees from jumping to direct competitors through strict non-compete agreements. Recent legal changes have altered this culture, allowing talent to move more freely between competitors. This shift means companies are less incentivised to hold onto talent they don't immediately need.
Tax Code Adjustments
Another factor affecting the market is the change in how companies can account for the cost of developers. Previously, companies could categorise developer expenses under R&D, receiving tax exemptions or lighter tax codes. This advantage has diminished, making it less beneficial to hold onto staff without critical work.
The UK Job Market Perspective
Employment Rates vs. Salaries
Here in the UK, employment rates are similar to pre-pandemic levels. However, salaries have taken a significant hit. British companies are notoriously tight-fisted, often offering lower salaries unless market forces compel them to spend more.
Political Ambiguity and Investor Confidence
Political uncertainty has led to a decline in investor confidence. Investors dislike ambiguity, and the recent political climate has been anything but clear. With the 2024 election concluded and the budget announcement coming in a month's time (October 2024), businesses and investors will soon know where they stand and can strategise accordingly.
Industry Hiring Trends
The only industries actively hiring in the UK right now are finance and other large corporations. The stagnation in growth rates has further impacted the availability of tech jobs.
The Reality of AI in Software Development
AI as a Tool for Efficiency
Any company that can afford to hire developers will continue to do so. If AI can genuinely make developers more efficient, there's no reason for companies to stop hiring. Instead, they can deliver more value with the staff they already have, leveraging AI to enhance productivity.
Business Incentives
For example, work that used to take 18 months can now be delivered in 15 months with the aid of AI, a whole quarter gained. Unless they have to, companies are more likely to capitalise on this increased efficiency than reduce their workforce.
Actionable Advice for Developers
Embrace AI Technologies
My advice? Learn how to work with AI. Look for best practices and find a workflow that integrates AI tools effectively. As of September 2024, the ecosystem is still evolving in integrating Large Language Models (LLMs) into the Software Development Life Cycle (SDLC).
Stay Ahead of the Curve
Don't get left behind. Very soon, you'll see job postings expecting familiarity with the prevalent AI tools of the time, whether it's GitHub Copilot, Cursor, or whatever solution the company has adopted.
AI won't take all tech jobs, but it will change how we work. Adaptability is key. By embracing AI and integrating it into your workflow, you position yourself to thrive in the evolving tech landscape.